2026 Stil Indastri Lukluk
Taim yumi tingim ol polisi gaidens, maket diman, na global envairomen, steel indastri bilong Saina bai go insait long nupela hap bilong stretim straksa na moderet rikaveri long 2026, aninit long bikpela het tok bilong "kontrolim prodaksen na kamapim gutpela kwaliti." Bikpela wok bilong indastri em long senis long bihainim skel ekspansen i go long winim "gutpela kwaliti impruvmen na gutpela kwantitativ gro." Ol jat aninit i soim ol bikpela samting na ol bikpela salens bilong 'steel' indastri long 2026, na i helpim yu long kisim hariap olgeta piksa bilong indastri.
Saplai na Dimand Straksa
Saplai Sait:Ol polisi regulesen, ol hevi bilong envairomen, na indastri self-disiplin i bagarapim ol, ol i ting krud steel prodaksen bai go daun yet. Planti institusen i tok olsem krud stiel prodaksen long 2026 bai stap namel long 931 milien na 960 milien tan, wanpela yia-long-yia i go daun long 1.25% i go long 3.1%. Ol strongpela polisi bilong senisim kapasiti, ol tambu long prodaksen bilong lukautim envairomen, na ol "anti-inovasen" eksen bai mekim na ol prodaksen kapasiti i no wok moa bai pinis, na ol i ting olsem indastri konsentresen bai go antap.
Sait bilong askim:Total volium i stap aninit long presa, tasol 'structural differentiation' i bikpela samting. Dimand bilong 'steel' insait long 'real estate' sekta i wok long go daun, tasol dispela i wok long go daun; diman bilong ain insait long infrastraksa i stap strong yet; na 'steel demand' insait long wok bilong wokim ol samting i wok long gro, na i kamap wanpela bikpela samting we ol i laikim. Total diman bilong ain long 2026 bai i stap klostu long 800 milien ton, wanpela yia-on-yia i go daun long samting olsem 1%, wantaim namba bilong ain diman long ol wok bilong wokim samting i go antap moa yet.
Ol Prais Trend Ol i ting ol prais bilong ain bai senis planti long daunbilo, wantaim liklik senis i go antap long olgeta prais level. Ol bikpela kontrak prais bilong 'rebar' na 'hot-rolled coil' bai stap namel long 2950-3400 yuan/ton na 3050-3550 yuan/ton, wanwan. Ol senis long prais bai kamap long saplai na diman balens, ol senis long polisi, ol senis long kos, na ol samting i stap ausait. Ol i mas lukluk long spit bilong polisi implementesen na strong bilong diman rikaveri.
Ol kos na winmani
Long sait bilong ol kos bilong ol 'raw material', ol i ting prais bilong ain ore bai go daun, prais bilong 'coking coal' bai senis insait long wanpela mak, na prais bilong 'scrap steel' bai stap strong yet. Long olgeta, ol i ting olsem pe bilong wan wan tan ain bai go daun, tasol ol pe bilong envairomen i wok long go antap. Ol i ting olsem ol winmani bilong indastri bai kamap gut gen, tasol ol i ting bai i gat bikpela senis. Ol bisnis we i gat strongpela sans na ol gutpela prodak potfolio bai i gat moa kompetisen, wantaim averes gros winmani bilong indastri long wan wan tan ain bai stap namel long 150-200 yuan.
Polisi na Ekstenel Envairomen
Domestik Polisi:Gavman bai go het long kamapim wanpela 'proactive fiscal policy' na wanpela 'moderately loose monetary policy', na lukluk long "stabilisim gro na stopim involusen," na promotim gutpela divelopmen bilong indastri long rot bilong ol samting olsem 'capacity' na 'output control', 'technological innovation', na 'green transformation'. Dispela nupela spesel-pepos bon kwota i ken kamap long 4.8 trilien yuan, na givim mani sapot long ol infrastraksa na ol narapela sekta. Ol indastri olsem ol masin, ol kar (moa yet ol nupela eneji kar), ol sipbilding, na ol samting bilong haus bai i stap strong yet, na dispela bai helpim long pulapim spes bilong ol wok konstraksen. Ol bikpela strong -2-3. Namba bilong ol ain ol i yusim long wokim ol samting i go klostu long 50% na bai i go antap yet -3.
Intanesenel Tred:Ol wok bilong lukautim tred na fomal implementesen bilong ol EU kabon takis i putim presa long ol ain ekspot bilong Saina. Long wankain taim, ol tambu long tred we ol kantri olsem India na Turkey i putim bai bagarapim ol ekspot tu. Tasol, ain bilong Saina i stap yet long resis long intanesenel maket, na straksa bilong salim ol samting i go aut bai senis i go long ol gutpela prodak. Wol Stil Asosiesen i tok olsem global steel diman bai groa liklik long 1.3% long 2026.
Ol Tren Bilong Divelopmen Bilong Indastri
Akseleret Grin Transisen:Aninit long mak bilong 'carbon peaking' na 'carbon neutrality', 'green' na 'low-carbon divelopmen insait long 'steel' indastri i kamap olsem wanpela samting we yumi no inap abrusim. Wok bilong yusim ol teknoloji olsem 'ultra-low emission retrofitting na hydrogen metallurgy bai go hariap, na dispela bai mekim ol kos bilong envairomen i go antap na kamapim wanpela grin teknoloji maket.
Gutpela na gutpela wok bilong wokim ol samting:Taim ol i mekim wok bilong wokim ol samting i kamap gutpela moa, dispela bai mekim na ol man i laikim ol ain i gat bikpela pefomens, na i gat bikpela veliu-. Ol entaprais bai skruim R&D invesmen, na kirapim divelopmen bilong ol prodak i go long ol gutpela na narakain prodak. Long wankain taim, dijitel senis bai kamap wanpela bikpela rot bilong kamapim gutpela wok na daunim ol kos.
Ol 'mergers' na 'acquisitions' i kamap hariap: Aninit long stia bilong ol 'anti-involution' polisi na ol 'regulatory measures', ol lida entaprais i mas bungim ol liklik na namel-sais prodaksen kapasiti, na dispela i mekim indastri i kamap bikpela na strong bilong toktok, na kamapim wanpela indastri straksa bilong "ol lida entaprais i bosim, wantaim ol liklik na namel entaprais i gat narapela sapot."
Konklusen
Long 2026, steel indastri bai tok gutbai long bikpela gro model bilong en na go insait long nupela saikel we i gat "kontrolim kapasiti, stretim straksa, strongim veliu, na promotim grin divelopmen." Long ol entaprais, ki bilong kamap gut em i stap long: insait long kampani, bihainim gut ol nesenel kapasiti kontrol na envairomen polisi, skruim R&D invesmen long ol hai-end prodak, na kisim dijitel na intelijen senis; ausait, senisim olgeta foren tred strateji, senisim long "prais kompetisen" i go long "veliu autput," lukluk long ol liklik maket na ol hai-end grin prodak, na daunim ol ekstenel risk long rot bilong ol kain kain na bihainim lo.
Long olgeta, long 2026, steel indastri bai stap long wanpela hap we i no gat planti saplai-dimand balens, wantaim polisi regulesen na maket kliaring i stap wantaim. Indastri olgeta bai soim ol pasin bilong "stebol tasol i go daun long olgeta autput, straksel optimaisesen na apgreding, na liklik winmani rikaveri." Ol entaprais i mas lukluk long kos kontrol, apgredim ol prodak, na grin trensfomesen long karim ol hevi na senis oltaim long maket envairomen.
